Short version: if you order an iPhone Duo for delivery from Apple today, the date you will be quoted is in late January 2027, not December. That is what Apple's online store has shown for every storage size and colour since shortly after pre-orders opened on 16 October. So if your plan was to order online and wait for the courier before Christmas, it will not work as things stand.
The longer answer is more hopeful, and it depends on which route you take.
What the delivery date actually means
The date at checkout is an estimate of when Apple expects to ship from its warehouses, based on the queue in front of you and the supply it expects. In the US it jumped to 25 January within about 30 minutes of pre-orders opening, and some buyers saw 29 January. The UK and the UAE showed similar late-January estimates by the next day.
Estimates can move in both directions. With some past iPhone launches, early dates for orders already placed have sometimes crept forward as production improved. That is a hope, not a plan. Apple has said demand has been "extraordinary" and that it is working to get phones out as fast as it can, but it has not said anything about Christmas, and we would not bet a present on an estimate improving by a month.
Carriers and retailers have their own queues
Carriers and big retailers get their own allocation, so their dates can be very different from Apple's. At the time of writing, reports said Best Buy in the US was showing carrier-tied models for store pickup in November and mid-December, and some UK networks were quoting November delivery on certain configurations. Those dates have been moving daily.
If you are happy with a carrier-tied phone or a new contract, it is worth checking those listings today. Read the small print: a carrier-tied phone can come with plan requirements, and the total cost over the contract matters more than the headline monthly price.
Store pickup is the route that skips the queue
Apple Stores get their own stock after launch day. When a store has a unit, it can offer it for in-store pickup, and that has nothing to do with the January delivery queue. Apple's pickup page currently says to check back from Saturday 24 October.
From then until Christmas, every store delivery is a chance to buy a Duo at Apple's normal price and walk out with it. Drops are small and unpredictable. Units often go within minutes, and you might see nothing for days at a time. But over two months, at two or three stores, the chances add up in a way a single online order cannot.
If you already have a January order
Keep it. Treat it as insurance. Chase store pickup on top of it, and if you land a phone earlier, you can decide what to do about the January order then. Giving up a queue place before you have a phone in your hand is the one move we would never make.
If you have not ordered at all
Place an order now if you are sure you want one, even with a January date. Being in the queue does not stop you hunting elsewhere, and it means a phone is on its way in the new year if Christmas does not work out. Then set up store pickup alerts.
Making pickup work for a Christmas deadline
Set your deadline earlier than 25 December. If it is a gift, aim to have it by mid-December so there is time to sort it out. A "maybe on the 23rd" plan is a stressful one.
Be open on the details. Either colour and two storage sizes is four configurations instead of one, which makes a big difference when drops are a handful of units.
Pick stores you can actually reach on short notice. A pickup reservation is only useful if you can get there before it expires. Check Apple's pickup terms for your country.
Check the Store app first thing in the morning. It is free and it works if you are disciplined about it.
Or get an email when it happens. iPhone Duo Finder watches the Apple Store you choose and emails you as soon as we spot Duo pickup stock, every time a new drop appears, until you turn it off. It is £5 per store for any Duo or £10 for a specific model, storage and colour, priced in your local currency and paid through PayPal. It does not reserve the phone and cannot promise one, but it tells you when to look.
The honest answer
Will an iPhone Duo arrive by Christmas? Through Apple home delivery, very probably not on today's dates. Through a carrier or retailer, possibly, if you are flexible about the deal. Through Apple Store pickup, possibly, if you are persistent, flexible and quick. Nobody can guarantee it, but you can stack the odds.
For more on how stores restock, read iPhone Duo restock times.